Current State and Key Statistics
The American Church faces a critical situation: 80-85% of churches are plateaued or declining. This troubling trend began in the mid-1960s when church leaders first noticed many major denominations had ceased growing.
Research from multiple sources confirms this decline:
- Church growth pioneer Win Arn (1988): “Of approximately 350,000 churches in America, four out of five are either plateaued or declining.”
- Researcher David T. Olson (analyzing 200,000 churches): Weekend church attendance is projected to decline from 20.4% of the population in 1990 to 14.7% by 2020.
- Church researcher Thom Rainer: “Eight out of ten of the approximately 400,000 churches in the United States are declining or have plateaued.” Furthermore, “84% are declining or experiencing a growth rate below the population growth rate for their communities.”
- Gary McIntosh (2011): In one Midwest district, “97% of the churches are in decline. Not plateaued, but in decline.”
Leadership Crisis
A significant factor contributing to this decline is the shortage of turnaround pastors:
- Regional denominational leaders report difficulty identifying pastors who have successfully led churches through revitalization.
- One Rocky Mountain regional leader stated, “I am reluctant to direct you to pastors who have led churches into decline; not wanting to subject them to further humiliation.” This leader could only identify one successful turnaround pastor.
- Another regional leader reported: “We do not have any pastors in our district who meet your requirements for turnaround,” indicating no churches in their jurisdiction were growing at even a minimal rate of 2.5% annually.
The Urgent Need for Change
Matthew Bohling of the Presbyterian Church of America emphasizes: “We can no longer simply ignore struggling churches. We must give attention to these churches before they die or we all lose!”
Three Strategic Solutions
Despite these challenges, there are practical responses that can revitalize the American Church:
1. Church Revitalization
With proper intervention, plateaued and declining churches can become healthy again. Key requirements include:
- Outside leadership coaching
- On-site strategy consultation
- Vision clarity development
- Strategic planning
- Leadership pipeline establishment
2. Graceful Church Closure
Some churches have completed their lifecycle and should:
- Close with dignity
- Invest remaining resources in healthy church plants
- Support church renewal efforts elsewhere
3. Strategic Church Planting
Healthy churches naturally become incubators for new congregations:
- Vibrant, healthy churches produce healthy, vibrant offspring
- This approach can begin reversing declining patterns
- Requires collaboration across denominational lines
Working together with these strategies can effectively change the state of the American Church and reverse the current decline.
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Dr. Aubrey Malphurs is the Founder and Visionary Leader of the Malphurs Group and the Senior Professor of Leadership and Pastoral Ministry at Dallas Theological Seminary. He frequently writes on Pastoral Ministry, Church Leadership, Strategy, and Vision and also serves churches and denominations as a Consultant and Speaker. His new book Re:Vision focusing on the leadership competencies of the turnaround pastor is available for pre-sale and ships to stores in October 2014. He is also a husband, father, grandfather, fisherman, and a diehard Florida Gator fan. | @amalphurs | website
